Time for a New Persian Gulf Strategy
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The formula of "full withdrawal for full peace" remains at the heart of the present impasse in the Israeli-Syrian negotiations.
The U.S. policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq has run its course. Given the geopolitical changes that have swept the Middle East since the Gulf War, continuing the same policy would only destabilize our allies and undermine our strategic interests in the region.
The primary obstacle that stands in the way of peace between Israel and Syria is the problem of "security, both real and imagined.
The massacre of at least 30 Palestinians in the Tomb of the Patriarchs during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan evoked a deep revulsion and a profound sense of vulnerability that explains the Palestinians' heightened rage and explosive rancor.
Since its capture by Israel in 1967, the Golan Heights has come to symbolize for both Israel and Syria more than an important strategic territory.
A strong Israeli public consensus in support of withdrawal from the Golan Heights is critical to any Israeli-Syrian agreement. That consensus is currently lacking. Syrian President Hafez al-Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin must work separately and together to sway Israeli public opinion in that direction.
A TOP Syrian official actively involved in Middle East peace negotiations told me that, following United States Secretary of State Warren Christopher's visits to the area in early August, Syria and Israel were almost ready to conclude a declaration of principles leading to an agreement. It was a two-part document: First, a declaration of principles – "Full withdrawal for full peace" – that would have obligated Israel to give up all of the Golan, and Syria to offer a comprehensive peace in return. And second, an agenda for negotiating the comprehensive peace, including establishment of several committees that would deal with mutual security, military issues, the settlements, and peaceful relations.
The opposition to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and his handling of Arab-Israeli peace negotiations is gaining in momentum in Israel. Benjamin Natanyahu, recently elected Likud leader and author of a new book, "A Place Among Nations" (Bantam), is leading the fight to topple Mr. Rabin, vowing not to surrender strategic territory, even if that means the collapse of the peace process.