Can Hamas Redeem Itself?

The current first phase of the Israel and Hamas ceasefire offers a good start toward ending the Israel-Hamas war. It partially alleviates the suffering of some of the Israeli hostages, their families, and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and provides desperately needed humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians in Gaza. In addition, the truce calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas of Gaza and the return of Palestinians to their cities and neighborhoods. Sadly, the second and third phases of the truce to reach a permanent ceasefire and the return of all hostages in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners are unlikely to be completed.

Is Hamas capable of redemption?
Hamas’ leaders, especially the most notorious Yahya Sinwar, have been repeatedly quoted to have said that even if 100,000 Palestinians are killed in their struggle to liberate Palestine, that would be worth the cause. But then how many Palestinian civilians, who have been shattered physically, emotionally, psychologically, and materially during the past 15 months, would agree that making such sacrifices in pursuit of a delusional goal of destroying Israel was worth the unfathomable death and destruction they have endured.

Hamas claims that it is fighting on behalf of its people’s well-being, but it has done nothing but use and abuse its people to serve its militant agenda. It squandered billions over the years to build tunnels instead of houses; it manufactured and procured weapons instead of building schools, higher learning institutions, and hospitals; it recruited and trained tens of thousands of young men to fight and die for a lost cause instead of raising a new generation of scientists, computer technicians, and structural engineers. Instead of shielding people from harm, it uses them as human shields.

If Hamas cares about the people, maybe it should commission a poll and ask ordinary Palestinians two simple questions: do you want to continue the struggle against Israel for another generation or two and suffer till the day of deliverance, which may never come? Or should we compromise and agree to a peaceful solution and usher in stability, prosperity, and growth with our neighbors, the Israelis?

Hamas and every Palestinian know the answer. Having endured hell over the past 15 months and decades of occupation and blockade, they do not want to fight for another 50 years only to die on the altar of Hamas’ suicidal self-glorifying mission. The changing conditions on the ground should give Hamas real pause to consider the futility of continuing violent resistance. I must admit that given Hamas’ doctrine, it is unlikely to change its stripes. Nevertheless, illuminating what’s on the ground just may allow Hamas to save what’s left of its skin and advance the Palestinians’ aspirations for statehood before it’s too late.

Face the Bitter Truth
When fighting against Israel, for whom existential threat, real or imagined, is omnipresent, Hamas should know that Israel will spare no effort or weapon to eradicate the sources of such a threat. Will Hamas realize that it can never prevail over Israel militarily? Will it abandon violent resistance in favor of a political solution by seizing the opportunity of the ceasefire, especially now that international sympathy for the Palestinian plight is at an all-time high?

The Failure of Violent Resistance
Hamas’ violent resistance against Israel is rooted in their belief that “Palestine is at the heart of the Arab and Islamic Ummah and enjoys a special status… Palestine is the Holy Land, which Allah has blessed for humanity.” But then, what does Hamas have to show for its decades of violent resistance but death and destruction, leaving nearly all of Gaza’s entire population of 2.1 million in a state of ruin, not knowing what horror awaits them?

Trump’s Disdain Towards Hamas
Hamas must be aware that Trump, who is a staunch supporter of Israel, wouldn’t mind seeing Hamas wholly crushed. Trump has already said that he will provide Israel with any weapon system it needs to ensure its security and deter any enemy from threatening it. And he has just floated the absurd and morally deranged idea of uprooting the Palestinians in Gaza and settling them in Jordan and Egypt, to “clean out” Gaza.

Hamas should know that Trump cares less about the Palestinians, which encourages Netanyahu to scuttle Phase Two of the ceasefire and resume the war to finish off Hamas. To stop that from happening, Hamas must fully adhere to the terms of the ceasefire and deny Netanyahu the excuse to resume the fighting. Will it?

The Saudi factor
Trump is greatly interested in expanding the Abraham Accords by seeking Saudi-Israeli normalization; the Saudis have agreed on the condition that Israel establishes a clear path that would lead to Palestinian statehood. A highly placed former Saudi official told me that if the Palestinians, especially Hamas, remain intransigent, they would put their national interest first. They would normalize relations with Israel and establish a defense treaty with the US and will no longer insist on a clear path toward a Palestinian state but settle for something vague that the Israelis would readily accept.

Hamas, whose October attack sought to stop the negotiations over Saudi-Israeli normalization, will no longer be in a position to derail the resumption of these negotiations. Given that Hamas’ belief that “the Palestinian issue is the central cause for the Arab and Islamic Ummah” is not unanimously accepted among Muslims, including the Saudis and other Palestinian factions, Hamas can save face by using the Saudis as the representative of Sunni Islam as a cover to justify its changed position. Will it?

The Marginalization of Iran and Hezbollah
For decades, Hamas was the recipient of financial aid and military assistance from Iran, while Hezbollah stood in solidarity with Hamas to confront Israel. After 15 months of a devastating war, Hamas finds itself militarily decimated and standing alone. Neither Iran nor Hezbollah can come to its rescue. Israel badly degraded Hezbollah’s military capabilities and shattered Iran’s air defense systems while rendering its arsenals of ballistic missiles ineffective in light of Israel’s impenetrable air defense. Having been battered by Israel, Iran and Hezbollah are in no position to come to Hamas’ aid.

A push for resuming war
Hamas ought to note that although the Netanyahu government signed off on the first phase of the ceasefire under pressure, he and several ministers, who care less about how many more Israeli soldiers are killed in the process, want to resume the war to finish Hamas and prevent it from ever reconstituting itself in Gaza. Hamas cannot persuade Netanyahu and his warmonger ministers from resuming the war by emerging from their tunnels with new uniforms and clean cars, waving Hamas flag and brandishing their rifles, as they did when they paraded the four hostages before a crowd prior to their release. Though Israel will be unable to destroy Hamas’s ideology, it could potentially decimate what’s left of Hamas’ military capability. Will Hamas heed this most likely scenario before it is too late?

Hamas’ October attack and Israel’s retaliatory war have fundamentally changed the dynamic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many factors, including changing circumstances, exhaustion, depletion of resources, a prolonged and costly stalemate, the absence of other viable options, changing power dynamics, and potential mutual gains, mostly apply to Hamas.

In the context of this change, Hamas will be wise enough to explore every opportunity to put an end to this ever-consuming conflict and offer a new horizon for the next generation of Palestinians who deserve better than what they have been served for generations. If Hamas misses this opportunity, it will do so at its peril.