In this essay I argue that because of the long history of authoritarianism, tribalism, and religious and cultural sectarianism in the Arab and Muslim world, the introduction of democracy is not likely to succeed without an initial transitional period measured in years rather than months. During this period, four core measures that deal with the main challenges to democracy in the Arab and Muslim world must be undertaken simultaneously. They are: gradual political reforms, economic incentives through sustainable development, educational reform, and the building of democratic institutions. Together, they will allow home-grown liberal-oriented forces to work in concert, under the protection of the law, in shaping the emergence of a new democratic system congruent with each community’s unique needs and traditional environment.

Irrespective of how and when American troops are withdrawn, Iraq will gradually edge closer to an all-out civil war unless the country is first divided and then put back together in some kind of confederation. Iraq has been broken, and this administration can do nothing to put it together again short of a constitutional amendment…

Israel has lost the war of perception. As the dust settles, Israel must reassess its strategy toward Iran and the Arab states, and reestablish its military credibility, not only for its own sake, but for the sake of its enemies to prevent their making a tragic miscalculation, based on recent events. Whether because of tactical…

Ending the war in Lebanon has the potential of changing dramatically the region’s geopolitical landscape in such a way as to lead to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace. To achieve that, Syria must be part of the solution. Damascus has been, and remains, key to Lebanon’s political stability and to any future peace between Israel and…

Try as it may to put the best face on it, the American intelligence agencies' assessment of global terrorism trends is damning the Bush administration in whichever way we look at it. In many ways the report stated the obvious: The Iraq war has contributed directly to the rise of Islamic radicalism and the diffusion of the Jihad ideology globally…

For the more than two decades that I have been involved, directly and indirectly, in Middle-Eastern negotiations and, at the same time, in my research and analysis of the region’s trials, never have I witnessed such turmoil. At present, nearly every nation there is embroiled in an internal conflict that is shaking not simply…

The conflict over Jerusalem transcends territory, time and human experience. In real historical time it is primarily a conflict between two peoples who have deep roots in the same space.

The constitution that was hailed by President Bush as a milestone in the development of democracy in Iraq is fundamentally flawed and will turn out to be nothing more than the instrument that will bring about the disintegration of Iraq. The Bush administration better take a closer look at the monster it has unleashed in…

I'm writing this column from Cairo while on an extensive visit to the Middle East. If there's a more appropriate place from where to assess the implications and repercussions of the events of 9/11 and the success or the failure of the Bush administration’s so-called war on terrorism, I